Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado is witnessing a resurgence of violence as ISIS-affiliated insurgents intensify attacks, jeopardizing the region’s multi-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Despite previous security improvements, recent incidents underscore the persistent threat posed by extremist groups to both local communities and international investments.
Recent Developments: Attacks on Conservation and Energy Sectors
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Niassa Reserve Assault: In April 2025, ISIS-linked militants attacked the Niassa Special Reserve, resulting in the deaths of at least 10 individuals, including anti-poaching scouts and soldiers. The violence led to the suspension of conservation activities and the displacement of approximately 2,000 residents.
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LNG Project Resumption Amidst Unrest: TotalEnergies announced plans to lift the force majeure on its $20 billion LNG project, which had been suspended since 2021 due to security concerns. The decision comes as the company cites improved conditions, though recent attacks highlight ongoing risks.
Humanitarian Impact: Displacement and Economic Disruption
The renewed insurgency has exacerbated humanitarian challenges:
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Mass Displacement: Over 850,000 individuals have been displaced within Mozambique, with many fleeing from conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado.
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Economic Strain: The instability hampers local economies, disrupts livelihoods, and deters foreign investment critical for national development.
Expert Insight: Emmanuel Kotin’s Strategic Commentary
Emmanuel Kotin, Executive Director and Security Analyst at the Africa Center for Counter Terrorism, provided the following analysis:
“The persistent attacks in Cabo Delgado signify a strategic shift by insurgents to undermine Mozambique’s economic foundations. The targeting of LNG projects not only threatens national revenue streams but also regional energy security. A coordinated approach involving enhanced intelligence, community engagement, and international support is imperative to counter this evolving threat.”
Call to Action: Strengthening Regional Security Measures
To address the escalating crisis, the following measures are recommended:
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Enhanced Military Collaboration: Strengthen joint operations between Mozambican forces and regional partners to dismantle insurgent networks.
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Community Engagement: Implement programs that address local grievances, promote economic opportunities, and counter extremist narratives.
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International Support: Mobilize resources and expertise from global partners to bolster counter-terrorism efforts and support humanitarian needs.
